Four years ago, I tried to capture the state of general aviation (GA) in 12 charts, covering everything from new airplane shipments to fatal accident rates. At the time, those bar and lines suggested activity was picking up, albeit from a fairly depressed level. An industry as varied as general aviation cannot be summed up in a few charts, but sometimes graphics tell the story better than thousands of words and many readers told me how helpful that article was.
Many things have changed since 2017—some for the better—so I thought it was time for an update. Here are 18 charts that show current trends in general aviation: flight activity, training trends, pilot demographics, active airplanes, and safety. Almost every one shows some scars from the Covid-19 pandemic, but other important trends are detectable as well.
Let’s begin with the question on many readers’ minds: how is GA doing right now? There are dozens of ways to answer that question, but one popular place to start is new aircraft sales. Theoretically, more people buying new airplanes means a healthier industry. Here the news isn’t great: sales are trending up slightly, but they are still down from the mid-2000s peak, not to mention the glory days of the 1970s and 80s. Even business jets, a growing part of aviation lately, have not recaptured their previous heights. This might change given how tight the used market is right now—20-year old Cessna 172s are selling for well over $200,000 and low time business jets are almost impossible to find—but it’s hardly guaranteed. Also note that this data, from GAMA, does not include experimental aircraft and right now kit sales are through the roof. That would improve the picture, but even this adds hundreds of airplanes, not thousands.
New airplane sales capture only a tiny sliver of the overall market, though. How about flight activity? Tracking this is surprisingly hard, because many GA flights do not use ATC services or land at busy airports. Still, FAA stats can give a broad view of flight activity and here the story is similar to new airplane deliveries: trending up over the last few years, but still down from 20 years ago.
Another measure of GA activity, in particular piston airplanes, is avgas use. This is relentlessly down, suggesting that any increase in activity is made up of either turbine airplanes or more efficient piston airplanes (trainers and LSAs instead of big piston twins). Longer term, this chart is a reminder that leaded fuel’s days are numbered. Whether it’s GAMI’s new unleaded 100 octane fuel or electric airplanes, it’s hard to see a bright future for 100LL.
It’s interesting to compare these trends with the turbine airplane world. FlightAware does a nice job of breaking things out, first for commercial airlines. It’s easy to see the “Covid cliff” in March 2020, then the slow climb out of the valley. Even today, though, airline traffic is down about 20% on 2019 levels. Many pundits are speculating whether some amount of business travel is lost forever.
Business jets, on the other hand, are booming and probably picking up some slack from the airlines. In the chart below, FlightAware defines “Business Aviation” as any turbine flight that is not cargo or commercial (essentially Part 91 or 135), and summer 2021 activity was noticeably above 2019 levels. Anecdotal evidence suggests a whole new segment of customers has discovered private flying during the pandemic—how many will stick around long term?
If the above charts look a little depressing, there is plenty of good news to be found in the training market. One of the first steps in the process of becoming a pilot is to pass the knowledge test, and while numbers here had been down or flat for many years, starting in about 2016 the trend reversed. You can see a downturn in 2020, most likely due to Covid shutdowns, but the pattern is still clear.
The next step is the checkride, and here we can track how many Private Pilot certificates are actually issued. This next chart looks at original certificates (not add-on ratings), and the trend is the same: up significantly since 2010. Even Covid couldn’t slow down checkrides much last year.
The cause of this training boom is clear: airlines are hiring at the highest rate in decades. Data from FAPA.aero show a sudden stop in 2020, but in an encouraging sign for student pilots, hiring has picked up quickly. In fact, August 2021 was the second highest month for new hires in 20 years. Most airlines are still projecting a pilot shortage over the next decade.
Profile of GA
So much for the overall numbers; who are the pilots flying in 2021? One trend has continued since 2017: more and more of them are professionals. Whereas once there were half a million pilots flying mostly for fun, today there are actually more ATPs than Private Pilots. Airlines and fractionals have grown steadily while recreational flying has declined, and that’s reflected in the crossing lines below.
As a result of this trend, all pilots are old, right? Not necessarily. While there’s a noticeable bump after age 50, it’s worth remembering that 20-30 is the peak time for pilots. Sure, many of these are training for a career as a professional pilot, but they still bring youth and energy to an industry often criticized for being stale. The other theory that is confirmed by this data is the mid-life dip: learning to fly in your 40s, a time typically busy with growing children and careers, is not easy. Should GA’s marketing machine focus more on the 20-30 segment and the 50-60 crowd?
Moving from pilots to aircraft, we can see clearly that the piston single is still the dominant way to fly. For all talk about the growth of business jets and turboprops, a Piper Cub, Cessna 172, or Cirrus SR22 is still the way most of us get airborne.
When it comes to hours flown, though, the tables are turned. The FAA’s GA Survey estimates that turboprops and jets (not to mention helicopters) fly twice as many hours per year as piston airplanes do.
Another way to slice the data is to look at when these active airplanes were built. Looking at the graph below is like reading a short history of GA: you can see the short postwar boom in 1946, the overall peak in the 1970s, and the more modest spike in the 2000s. The fact is, the majority of GA airplanes are over 40 years old—and based on the new airplane deliveries chart above, this trend won’t reverse.
And how are these airplanes being used? Mostly for personal and instruction, but the pie chart below is a reminder of how varied GA really is. From cropdusting to air medical to air taxi, there is a lot going on in the skies over America.
One final trend in this area is interesting, if not surprising: pilots are not using legacy resources to file flight plans like they once did. In an age of electronic flight bag apps and smartphones, a call to Flight Service just isn’t what it used to be. Even DUATS flight plan volume is down steadily, as more apps submit flight plans directly.
Finally, a look at safety. GA accidents, both overall and fatal ones, have declined by about 20% over the last 20 years. This is obviously good news, and recent advances deserve credit, from better training to new technology. But the overall number of accidents seems to have leveled out recently, and this gross number does not take into account how many hours were flown (or under what conditions). On a per-hour basis, the fatal accident rate is essentially unchanged.
What leads to these crashes? The top cause sits in the left seat. Whether it’s due to lack of proficiency, poor decisions, bad luck, or even health problems, pilots cause almost two thirds of accidents.
The gold standard in aviation safety is clearly the airlines. Data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows a stunning decline in fatal airline accidents over the decades. Flying on a US airline in 2021 is truly is safer than driving to the airport, with a fatal accident rate per 100,000 hours of almost zero since 2010. For comparison, the AOPA Air Safety Institute estimates the general aviation fatal accident rate in 2018 was 0.74 per 100,000 hours—and 2018 was probably the safest year ever. There is work to do.
Where are we?
These charts are like a Rorschach test: pessimists can find plenty of evidence for GA’s continuing decline into obscurity, while optimists will point to signs of life in the training market. The truth is, unsurprisingly, somewhere in between. The go-go days of the 1970s, when Cessna was shipping thousands of airplanes ever year, are clearly gone forever—flying yourself in a light airplane is simply a niche hobby. At the same time, it’s clear that things are better than they were five years ago in many ways, from flight training to business jet flying.
General aviation is, as always, what you make of it.
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1. The current volume of flight instruction is unsustainable. There are more students that the local schools in my area can handle, and a steady turnover of CFIs due to unsustainable wages and benefits. Further, I don’t see any upward pressure on wages yet, even though there should be. There’s no incentive to pay well when everyone knows the CFI is just there for a year or two. I wouldn’t be surprised if airlines decide to start their own flight schools, staffed by retired pilots.
2. One reason FSS calls are down is the drop in quality. The last few calls I made I got an obviously poorly trained person, who read the forecast off of the same information I had through Foreflight. I don’t feel there is added value in using them anymore, especially when I have in-cockpit weather and can open and close a flight plan with a button on my phone.
Wonderful data, John! I remember that when I got my FAA Private, nearly a decade ago, things were very different: instructors have been waiting for an opportunity forever, and were very hard to find actual americans in flight schools. Things have changed dramatically, for the better, in the airline industry (although the artificial 1500 rule has a great share of impact), and we can see it again as a viable career. The number of ATPs surpassing PPs is revealing – although I believe many of them are foreign license based and will never impact the US market directly. Now, when it comes to my age or my dream of having my own little Cessna, I see how of an exception I am becoming… not encouraging. But, as with the safety charts, there is room for improvement, and I feel a personal commitment to it!
Very interesting data! Thanks for putting it together.
Under “2019 percentage of hours flown, by use”, where does Aerial Firefighting fit in?
I have a quick question, Does soaring (gliding), or sport pilot, ultra-light, paragliding , or hang gliding even make a percent. My soaring club has some pilots flying 50-100 hours a year, others maybe 20 or less in a year. I don’t have any ideas for the sport classes that are invisible to the FAA.
I find that as a freelance instructor, my volume is very low, and yet at the nearby university, they do not have enough instructors to work with new students. Perhaps the student loan abilities work to create this situation.
The other thing is when the airplanes rent for over the going rate (even though the state buy these airplanes) and the instruction is charged at about $50 per hour and the instructor is receiving less than half that. No wonder they do not stay around. The other thing, may I use your presentation at a local pilots meeting, since I think it may be of interest to the group and create much discussion. Jim P
Sorry to hear that.
Wow, inflation and demand is driving low skill jobs into the $20+/hr. range.
Who would want to flight instruct for that unless it’s to get free time to move up.
On the issue of GA plane sales volume – something to consider is the number of new experimental plane kits being purchased. At Oshkosh this year, for instance, Vans announced it sales for kits had risen from 35 per week (2018) to over 80 per week (2021). Could it be the GA airplane market is healthier than it appears, it’s just more folks are opting for experimentals? A final point on Vans numbers – it alone appears to be selling as 5x more kits a year than the entire group of traditional manufactures sell of certificated planes. Amazing. As an owner/pilot of both an RV7 and RV14, I believe I know why.
No surprise that the EAB market is booming. It’s increasingly difficult to find good A&P to work on my factory built aircraft. EAB’s are much less expensive to acquire compared to new aircraft, and even older ‘used’ aircraft. They are faster, more versatile, and customized to the owner/builder. The pilot/owners of EAB’s don’t have problems with lack of competent maintainers, the EAA is a great resource with lots of very helpful people willing to teach. An added plus is that oversight from FAA maintenance inspectors who often focus on the paperwork rather than the problem is largely absent. However, there’s always the FAA legal department who can screw up a trip to Heaven as they guide non-aviation centric judges toward wacky decisions (like the recent Federal Circuit Court decision that redefined flight instruction as carriage for hire.
There’s no doubt that the experimental-kit market is where the most action is right now, and Van’s in particular makes some great airplanes (that do not get reported by GAMA). However, it’s harder to track: do you count tail kits sold, complete kits sold, or completions? Dan Johnson has some great stats on new registrations of kits and LSAs (https://bydanjohnson.com/2020-is-history-how-did-light-aircraft-fare-in-this-year-of-fear/), but this shows hundreds of airplanes – not the 4000+ suggested by Van’s sales right now. Of course there’s a lag, so we’ll see.
Nice charts, very interesting, especially the age of aircraft flying one. Non-pilots always look at me in disbelief when I tell them most small planes flying around are from the ’70s
Very nice, clean presentation of the data. More notes on the sources of the data would be useful. For instance, how are the ages of pilots determined? FAA survey, current medicals?
Good question. In the case of pilot age, that comes from the FAA’s Civil Airman Statistics report. It says the following: “ Statistics about airmen, both pilot and nonpilot, were obtained from the official airmen certification records maintained at FAA’s Aeronautical Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.”
Great data and it shows how delicate our industry can be. Unfortunately the higher the fuel prices go the more they will effect our industry. The politicians better wake up before they destroy us all!!!
That’s the intent. “They” don’t want cars on the road because of greenhouse gasses they go absolutely insane when it comes to general aviation. Raise the price of acquisition, parts, insurance and fuel and you will eventually dry up anymore interest in general aviation altogether.
I flew VFR or more than a dozen airports on my 5 state cross country trip. Only 2 airports had any activity at all. The others? Hangar doors shut, no movement either on the ground or in the air. CTAF frequency completely quiet. So just where is the supposedly uptick in general aviation?
I recently, now in my late ‘60’s, became a Recreational Pilot. Basically, it is the old version of Sport but with 3rd class medical thrown in…. but, I can fly certificated (read cheaper) planes.
I am one of only 105 as of December 2020. Probably will be fewer by the end if this year.
This is a missed opportunity for many and the schools and freelance CFI’s know little about it.
The increasing number of EABs indicate a couple of possibilities I would think:
1) Aircraft design has matured to the point that we no longer need government oversight and certifications or:
2) GA is in a transition period to a total hobby activity.
If it were just a cost thing, I would expect that people would also be building their own automobiles.
Gone are the days where Cessna is….
Yes those days are gone, but what is the reason. I believe that the cost of the aircraft has become too expensive for most flyers. Lack of reasonable new purchase price causes the used sales to also be too high for the average person. I would like to see a study comparing number of units sold with the cost of insurance on the aircraft from the manufacture. Breaking down the aircraft down to airframe and engine. In addition, compare new units sold vs used aircraft sold.
I believe we will find that the decline of aircraft being produced is directly related to the liability of this insurance causing the average person to no long afford to fly. My understanding is that the major jump in price for aircraft engines is due to this.
I would certainly be in the market to purchase a new Cessna if the price of the plane was within a range that middle class can afford. Some LSA’s are in a reasonable price range, but they are not the aircraft I would purchase for longer flights. Seems to me that this elite cost has cause the major portion of this decline.. The planes being purchased are used aircraft due to this cost.
After flying a 182 RG, there’s no way I would want to fly a LSA. Heck, a 172 I only fly when the 182 isn’t available. And begrudgingly at that…
I have not yet flown a 182, but same concern. Let’s get pressure in reducing insurance requirements and other reasons the costs are so high for aircraft. A cessna 172 in 1970 was only 12k. Now it is $432k. This is killing the industry.
Forbes wrote an article “The high cost of new general aviation aircraft may be pricing pilots out of the market, April 28, 2021. It would be great for someone to dig into this and discover how to allow middle class to get into new aircraft.