|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Every pilot has heard of get-there-itis, but have you ever heard of “stay-here-itis”? Believe it or not is a real thing, a different version of the dreaded plan continuation bias, and has just as much aeronautical decision-making consequences as the other-itis’es.s.s.s’. I almost made a stay-here-itis mistake that could have made an already stressful trip even more challenging and unpleasant flight for my most critical of all passengers—my family.
The trip had been planned for months. It was going to be one of those memorable family adventures in the airplane, setting out to far flung destinations, seeing and doing new things. For me it had been a bucket-list trip ever since I got my pilot certificate and looking over charts for fun places to fly. A window of opportunity opened when a work-related function, along with timing that was ideal for a family vacation, made for a great chance to check off this “gotta-do-at-least-once” trip off my list.
The first part of the trip was a 3.5hr flight to Charlotte for a company event. Then a three-hour Sunday flight to the Outer Banks, more specifically, the Wright Brothers Memorial and a landing at First Flight Airport (KFFA) in Kitty Hawk. Then a few days of sun, surf and sand before heading back to St. Louis with an overnight college visit stop in Knoxville to break up the trip.
I have made many long-distance airplane trips with my family, so for them a trip like this was the norm. My kids grew up in the SUV of the sky, our venerable Piper Cherokee Six. It fits our family of five (and sometimes our dog), with all our luggage comfortably. With just about 1000-lbs of full-fuel useful load, we have always had plenty of airplane to get us to our preferred destinations across the central states. A few times a year we’d make trips in the airplane including summer get-aways in northern Wisconsin, spring break vacations on the Gulf Coast, long-weekend trips to see family in Chicago, and college-campus visits throughout the Midwest. To say the least, my family are seasoned GA travelers, and understand the flexibility needed when flying GA. However, even with that experience, they still can be my biggest critic of when we choose to leave, how the flight went, how my landing was, or even what snacks we packed.
My kids grew up in the SUV of the sky, our venerable Piper Cherokee Six.
The first leg of the trip was uneventful. However, once we got settled in Charlotte, that is when the news started about a tropical storm brewing in the Caribbean, and what it may turn into. Early reports varied wildly of where it would go, how strong it could be, and how long it would take to get there. So, for now, my thoughts were to keep an eye on it, and be ready to change plans if needed.
By Sunday morning the storm had strengthened and had a name: Debby. It was out over the Gulf and moving up the west coast of Florida making landfall sometime Monday evening. All the forecast models agreed on when and where it would make landfall, but after that every model had a different prediction of where it would go next. One model had it moving up into Georgia and fizzling out over western Carolinas, another had it moving up central Carolinas fueling storms inland, one model had it moving across Georgia and back over the Atlantic then up the east coast, while yet another model just had it making its way over the Atlantic then drifting back over Georgia and South Carolina. They call these storm track predictions the “spaghetti models” and every updated weather forecast I watched looked like a big plate of spaghetti over Georgia for the next few days.
By Sunday morning the storm had strengthened and had a name: Debby.
I spent most of Sunday morning pouring over the forecasts and the models. I read every NWS Forecast discussion in the southeastern US, and looked at every weather app I could. No one could agree on the storm track, and even how much of a threat the storm still presented. One thing was consistent, the storms intensity was going to weaken considerably, and really the main threat was going to be rain and occasional thunderstorms in the remnant bands around the low. There was just no agreement on where that low-pressure center would be positioned, and where most of that rain or storms would occur. However, all the short-term forecasts showed it was going to be sunny and VFR at the Outer Banks through at least Tuesday evening. With the storm still over 800 miles away, I felt we could still get to our destination safely, have at least a couple days of good beach weather, and then adjust our plans when we get out there.
Not related to the storm, we had to climb out of Charlotte IFR to get above a low layer, but once we got on top at about 5,000′ it was crystal blue smooth skies all the way to the coast. It was a beautiful day at the Wright Brothers Memorial, with light winds blowing right down the runway at First Flight Airport (FFA). The heat and humidity in the area made for some potential of isolated pop-up showers in the forecast, but a solid high-pressure system over the Atlantic would keep any convective activity out of the area, at least for a couple days.
The landing at First Flight was smooth and nice, and it felt great to be there and mentally check off that one from my list.
The landing at First Flight was smooth and nice, and it felt great to be there and mentally check off that one from my list. We walked up to the memorial to soak it all in, then down to the track of the first flight, and over to tour the museum. What an inspirational place and I’d highly encourage everyone to check it out. After a couple hours walking around the park the daytime heating and humidity brought enough energy to start some pop-up rain showers in the area. Looking at the radar on my phone one was drifting towards us, so it was time to get the family going and make the short trip from First Flight over to Dare County (MQI) where we’d keep the plane secured for the rest of the week. The five mile flight from FFA to MQI only took five minutes, and is the shortest airport-to-airport flight I have ever done. We managed to land right when the pop-up shower hit the airport, and we all got a good soaking while tying down the airplane and unloading our bags for the week.
The next couple of days were uneventful on the Outer Banks, generally good weather with a few afternoon pop-up showers, then would clear out for some nice evenings. We did the normal beach vacation things, and my family was enjoying it, but most of my focus was on Debby. Where it was going, how the forecasts were changing, what should we do; stay or go? This is when the stress of indecision came in and where the stay-here-itis factor came into play. Thoughts ran through my mind:
We prepaid for this place until Thursday.
Our Airbnb in Knoxville is only available the one day we’d plan to be there.
The family had plans on things to see and do here, now I am going to force them to cut their vacation short.
You’re at the beach man, relax!
What are we going to do with an extra day in Knoxville?
What are our options to extend our stay here?
All these thoughts weighed heavy on my mind as I kept reading the forecast discussions and looking at the conflicting models.
By Tuesday evening I was struggling, and none of the forecasts agreed. Do we stay like we’ve planned, or do we go now, or at least tomorrow morning, to beat any of the serious stuff from causing havoc on our trip? The models now were showing the low-pressure center moving up the central Carolinas on Thursday. Ironically, the Outer Banks was going to spared most of the rain because the storm was going to pass far enough inland to be a non-factor there. My problem was I needed to travel back west through that track and have to deal with a potentially rough flight, all with my family with me.
We could stay-and-see…maybe Thursday there would be a good weather window to depart? Maybe we could divert north if the heavy rain and thunderstorms got in our way, “pick our way through them”, but how far north? It already was a three-hour trip direct; I wouldn’t want to complicate it with a long diversion and possible fuel stop well out of the way, and weather window options closing along the way. We could stay and extend our trip, but we might not get a good weather window until Saturday, and that would add an expensive couple of days on our trip, assuming we could even find a place that was available. Or we could leave now, cut off our trip by a day and a half, and stay ahead of the weather and north of the heavy rain bands, and just face the disappointment that we needed to cut the trip short. The decision weighed heavy on my mind as I tried to fall asleep on Tuesday evening.
By Wednesday morning, the weather forecasts inland were just as vague, and I was still waffling on staying to plan or just going. Then I caught a story on the news about a couple of embedded tornados creating damage on the bands northeast of the low, and that’s when it clicked. That little voice in my head was screaming, “Just go today you fool! Don’t mess with this and get on the other side of the mountains in clear VFR weather.” So, I started waking up the family and getting them prepared to leave that day, and started making new arrangements in Knoxville to spend an extra day there.
The flight out of Dare County was nice and smooth, the winds were minimal, and we had to climb through some light rain showers to get in between some layers. These were the far outer bands of the system, but the flight was smooth with no turbulence. Once we got a little more inland the winds picked up and for one of the first times in my life flying cross-country, I had a decent tailwind going west. As we got closer to the foothills and mountains the ground heat and storm energy created some more isolated build-ups of heavy showers, but was easily able to divert around them without deviating too far off course while keeping it a smooth easy flight for my family. Once we were on the west side of the mountains the clouds cleared up and we had a nice landing at Downtown Knoxville Airport (DKX). I even got a rare compliment from my daughter on the smooth flight.
My fligh track from Outer Banks to Knoxville with Debby bearing down.
We made the best of our extra day, spending it in Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg before coming back the next day to tour the Tennessee campus. We even caught the late show at the Dolly Parton’s Stampede, and my kids thought it was the highlight of our entire trip! It was the most relaxed I had been on the trip the whole week, and not once did I check the weather to see how Thursday actually turned out over North Carolina. I caught a couple snippets in the news about the storms and heavy rain with Debby, but was very content in my decision to leave early and did not want to look to see if staying would have worked out or not.
Our flight back home was typical and uneventful, and made for a relaxing stress-free end of the journey. It for sure was a memorable trip, but not for what I was expecting it to be. Aeronautical decision making can be easy when there is consistency and agreement with forecasts. Strong weather systems like large frontal systems moving into an area typically have consistent results, and most forecasters or even pilots should know what to expect and be able to plan around it a few days out. It would have been an easy decision on this trip if the storm intensified and followed typical weather patterns. I’ve been on trips where there was an obvious choice to stay or go without hesitation, however, the factors on this event were not all that clear, and other non-aeronautical considerations were playing into my decision-making process. Whether you call it get-there-itis or stay-here-itis, this story is just another example of how plan continuation bias can creep into our aeronautical decision-making process with possible negative results.
- A Case of Stay-Here-Itis - January 3, 2025
Steve…. Great story and good decision. We had a similar situation, albeit not a Hurricane, at Hilton Head in 2015. Typical cold front forecast to stall out across the southeast as a stationary front. Had to decide to either leave a day early, or possibly be stuck for a day or two which is typical for those southeastern west to east stationary fronts. At the time I was not IFR current, so decided to get up early and leave on Friday. As luck would have it, we were delayed 3 hrs at the FBO due to a TS that sat right over the airport which would die out and then re-generate itself. Finally got airborne and was home in Ohio by 4pm. Did the same thing you did, didn’t even look to see what the weather was like the next day.
Steve, Thanks for taking us along on this great adventure and sharing your decision-making along the way. I liked the picture of the monument commemorating the first flight by the Wright brothers. When I was flying A-10s at Myrtle Beach, I was chosen to fly the #2 aircraft in a 4-ship flyby of the monument on the 75th anniversary of that date in history. We held over the Elizabeth City Regional Airport until it was time for our pass at low altitude over the monument. Since I was #2, I was the low man in our ‘fingertip’ formation and all I saw of the monument was from my peripheral vision as I was ‘tucked in’ tightly on #1s right wing. I wish I knew someone who may have take our picture that day!
Steve, Nice story about ADM. When in doubt, get the heck out. You don’t want a bunch of hail dents or worse. What year is your Six? You and your partner have a nicely updated interior and I like the inertia reels too! Did you update it after you bought it, or was it done by a PO? Just curious — Don
PS – A six was my first “high-performance” endorsement (50 years ago (gulp) ). I’ve always had a fondness for the PA-32 variants.