The big week is finally here – you and a longtime friend are flying to see The Masters golf tournament in Augusta, Georgia. It’s the pefect mix of fun and flying, and the trip from your home near Jacksonville, Florida (CRG), to Aiken, South Carolina (AIK) is an easy 1.5 hours in your Diamond DA40. You are instrument rated and current, and the airplane is well equipped with a Garmin G1000 glass cockpit, autopilot, and datalink weather. You were hoping to go VFR today, but you can make it IFR if needed.
As is often the case in spring, the radar is colorful. Are there enough holes in the storms to make the flight? Read the weather reports below, then tell us if you would fly the trip or cancel. Proposed departure time is 2030Z.
Overview
The view on ForeFlight shows lots of rain and thunderstorms in Georgia and South Carolina, although there are some pretty big holes along your route.
The surface analysis shows the source of all that weather: a low pressure system is moving in from the west, and a series of fronts are spreading out in front of it.
Prog charts show the system eventually moving offshore, but not until later in the day tomorrow.
Satellite
The color IR satellite shows plenty of high tops, suggesting convective activity around.
The visible satellite shows some holes between those cells, although more organized storms show up in central Georgia.
Convection
As you would expect from the radar picture, there are plenty of convective SIGMETs around.
A Pilot Report (PIREP) along your route is cause for concern – severe turbulence was reported at 6,000 feet by a Pilatus. However, it is almost two hours old.
If you do go IFR today, at least icing won’t be a major concern. The freezing level is above 10,000 feet – a lot higher than you typically fly.
Text weather
The METARs and TAFs are almost all good, starting with your departure airport. It’s reporting good VFR conditions, with a forecast for occasional storms and rain.
En route is also mostly VFR conditions, although one airport near a thunderstorm is showing marginal VFR.
Your destination is much like your departure airport – good VFR and forecast to stay that way except for storms moving in. Mist is also forecast to appear, but not until much later.
Decision time
The radar looks bad; the METARs look good. Can you stay VFR and dodge the build-ups? Or should you punt and start driving? You would prefer to get there tonight, so driving is probably a better backup than flying tomorrow morning.
Add your comment below.
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I don’t like the cloud cover at intermediate airports combined with the satellite view of the stuff moving in from Georgia. It seems to me the possibility of embedded thunderstorms is pretty high. I would have to see the wording of the SIGMETs to make a firm decision, but based on what I see here I would not go in an airplane until that stuff in GA had cleared through.
Night IFR with thunderstorms around, SEL? No Radar? No Thanks.
20:30Z = 14:30 Local
This is a safe flight to make. Note that 2030Z is 4:30 PM EST, which means you will be able to see buildups and land 1.5 hours before dark. Night time this would be a no for me. This is not a squall line but rather a typical FL pop up storm type of day. This flight should be done IFR, and ATC in the area is good at helping in case storms start developing on your route of flight. It is definitely possible that the hole over Savannah closes, and so the pilot must respect the possibility of a deviation back south. That is a fair “out” plan. I would like to see winds aloft, particularly because of the turbulence pirep.
Messrs Sletten & Neumann have all the reason’s I would make….. There is always another Masters tournament & frankly being close to my own bar & fridge also as weight.
Now if it were a Superbowl scenario……. hmmmm
Heck, this is an easy VFR trip and should be done VFR. You don’t want to be IN a TRW regardless so with IFR you really need radar. Bases are high and vis good, you’ll do some zig zagging.
We have this kind of easy VFR all the time in the SE. Also, you have lots of alternates for this short flight. Certainly reason to take a look.
You are in northern FL, so it’s probably a 3 to 4 hour drive to Augusta, or about the same time it takes to study the weather, pre-flight the plane, get there, park the plane among all the jets there for the same thing, then rent a car if you can find one to get to the course. Drive it and forget the weather brief, the pre-flight, the plane parking, and the car rental, and have a guaranteed way to get home. Usually anything under 3 or 4 hours is better spent driving. Some would argue that half the joy of flying is just flying, but I prefer practicality.
With datalink weather, I would go. You will have some advance warning if lines start to form and plan B is required. I do still rely on my stormscope as I believe it can give an early heads up if a cell is forming. It is also a better predictor of turbulence than radar. I would go IFR as controllers can be a big help with weather and ride reports.
I would do this Flight IFR. But I’d tell my passenger that we may be stopping on the way and renting a car if the weather worsens. ATC continual advice and my GNS 750, 430, 796, G500, Stormscope and glass cockpit would get me off the ground IF review of the past weather to present does not indicate a lot of increased thunderstorms or icing conditions.
We all knew Tiger was going to win before the tournament even started so the trip wasn’t necessary. Besides, a big screen tv will show you more players in action than trumping around in your tennis shoes.
But you won’t get an egg salad sandwich at home that can compare to the one at Augusta.
Well, as a pilot for about 60 years… flying B-47s in the Air Force, F-84s and F-86Hs in the Mass. ANG, and owning & flying a Cessna 182, I would abort, and fly another day when the weather was better….. Life is too short to gamble….unless someones life at the destination depends on me getting there to help!